Costco is sitting on nearly $20 billion in cash. With quarterly earnings coming up, investors are watching for any sign of a special dividend or stock split.
Costco's cash reserves keep growing, and that's set off new talk about a possible special dividend. But anyone hoping for a quick payout may have to wait. The company's cash is close to $20 billion as it gets ready to report fiscal Q4 2026 earnings after the market closes on Thursday, September 24. Wall Street is watching, but some analysts say a surprise announcement this week is unlikely.
Costco last paid a special dividend in January 2024, after announcing it in December. Since then, the cash pile has only grown. In April, Costco raised its regular quarterly dividend by 13.1% to $1.47 per share. That marked 22 straight years of increases. Both analysts and shareholders are focused on how much cash the company is holding, especially since Costco's stock has lagged behind the broader market this year.
Costco reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $69.15 billion, representing a 12% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EPS came in at $4.93.
Greg Melich at Evercore ISI says the "growing potential for a special dividend" is real as Costco's cash keeps climbing. Still, he doesn't expect the company to announce one with this week's results. Melich thinks a special payout is more likely sometime in the next year, if cash goes past $20 billion. Rupesh Parikh at Oppenheimer also points to the chance of a special dividend or even a stock split. Either move could help lift Costco's share price, which is up only about 5% so far this year.
For the next quarter, analysts expect Costco to bring in $94.85 billion in revenue, up 10% from last year's $86.16 billion. Adjusted earnings per share are forecast to rise 12% to $6.55. These numbers show Costco is still growing in a tough retail market, but they also set high expectations. Among 20 Wall Street analysts, the consensus is Moderate Buy: 15 Buys, four Holds, and one Sell. The average price target is $1,088.89, which would mean about 21% upside from current prices.
Costco's most recent special dividend was a $15-per-share payout announced in December 2023 and paid in January 2024. Previous special dividends included $10 per share in 2020, $7 in 2017, and $5 in 2015, highlighting the company's history of sizable one-time returns to shareholders.
Costco's way of returning cash to shareholders is different from other companies that have recently paid special dividends. For example, as reported earlier, NEXON used its retained earnings for a one-time payout, putting its capital strategy in the spotlight. Costco seems to prefer a slower, steadier approach. That may be because it wants to keep its options open in an uncertain retail market, or simply because it values steady, predictable returns over splashy moves.
As of August 2026, the S&P 500 is up more than 12% for the year. Costco's stock has gained just 5%. The company's market cap is still one of the biggest in retail, and its steady dividend growth has made it a favorite for income-focused investors. But with cash piling up and the stock trailing the market, pressure is building for Costco's management to explain how it plans to use its cash.
Costco isn't rushing into another special dividend, even with so much cash on hand. That shows a cautious approach, focused on long-term stability instead of quick wins. Some investors may be frustrated by the wait, but Costco's record of steady growth and regular dividend hikes suggests patience could pay off-especially if management decides on a big special payout once cash tops $20 billion. For now, Costco is a steady performer, not a standout. The real question is whether its next move will spark new interest from shareholders without giving up the financial discipline that built its reputation.
Special dividends are one-time cash payments that companies give to shareholders outside their usual dividend schedule. Unlike regular dividends, which show ongoing profits and a commitment to returning capital, special dividends usually mean a company has extra cash or few good ways to reinvest. For investors, these payouts can be a nice bonus, but they aren't guaranteed and shouldn't be counted on for long-term income or growth. The timing and size of special dividends depend on what management thinks about future needs, market conditions, and what shareholders want.
