SanDisk stock has soared over 700% in 2026, and Goldman Sachs now projects even more upside. The firm’s new $2,200 target highlights a sharp divergence from Wall Street consensus and signals a major shift in semiconductor earnings expectations
SanDisk has become the standout performer in the S&P 500 this year, with its stock price climbing more than 700% year-to-date as of July 9, 2026. The company’s extraordinary run has drawn fresh attention from Wall Street, culminating in a bold new call from Goldman Sachs. On July 5, the investment bank nearly doubled its 12-month price target for SanDisk to $2,200, maintaining a Buy rating and signaling that it sees further gains ahead despite the stock’s historic rally.
Goldman’s new target implies roughly 18% upside from SanDisk’s July 9 closing price of $1,858.27, according to Yahoo Finance. But the real story is not just the headline number. Goldman’s non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) estimate for calendar 2026 is now more than 30% above the average Wall Street forecast, reflecting a fundamental shift in how the firm views SanDisk’s earnings power. This divergence suggests that Goldman expects the company to outperform consensus expectations by a wide margin, driven by factors that many analysts may be underestimating.
What’s Driving the Upgrade
Goldman’s bullish stance is rooted in its view of the NAND memory market, where it expects supply constraints to persist longer than in other segments like DRAM. The firm’s new price target is based on a 20x price-to-earnings multiple applied to a normalized EPS estimate of $110 for 2026—double its previous EPS estimate. While Goldman did lower its valuation multiple from 22x to 20x, the much higher earnings base more than offsets the change, resulting in a sharply higher target price.
According to reporting by TheStreet, Goldman believes that tight NAND supply, combined with SanDisk’s success in securing long-term agreements with major hyperscale customers, will drive structurally higher and more durable earnings. The company has already committed more than one-third of its projected 2027 bit output under new business model agreements, locking in pricing and volume and reducing the cyclical risk that has historically weighed on memory stocks.
Key Numbers and Market Context
SanDisk’s most recent quarterly results underscore the scale of its momentum. For the fiscal third quarter ended April 30, 2026, the company reported revenue of $5.95 billion, up 97% from the prior quarter and 251% from a year earlier. Datacenter revenue surged 645% year-over-year, while GAAP net income reached $3.615 billion. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $23.41. Looking ahead, SanDisk has guided for fourth-quarter revenue between $7.75 billion and $8.25 billion, with non-GAAP EPS expected to range from $30.00 to $33.00. These figures represent another step up from already record-breaking results.
FactSet data as of July 10, 2026, shows that SanDisk is now one of the largest contributors to earnings growth in the S&P 500’s Information Technology sector, alongside companies like Micron, Nvidia, and Apple. The semiconductor sector is projected to deliver 131% year-over-year earnings growth in the second quarter, with SanDisk as a primary driver. Excluding semiconductors, the IT sector’s estimated earnings growth would drop from 63.3% to 25.8%.
Risks and Catalysts Ahead
Goldman’s thesis is not without risks. The firm acknowledges that a failure for NAND pricing to remain structurally higher, increased competition from Chinese manufacturers such as YMTC, or a lack of traction in enterprise solid-state drives (eSSD) could all threaten the bullish outlook. However, Goldman maintains that these risks are not imminent and that supply constraints are likely to persist well into 2027.
Investors will be watching SanDisk’s August 5 earnings report closely, particularly for updates on long-term agreements and management’s commentary on NAND pricing. The company’s investor day on August 13 is expected to provide further detail on its multi-year pipeline and long-term financial targets. With the stock already up more than 700% this year and a major Wall Street bank projecting even more upside, SanDisk’s next moves could have significant implications for both the company and the broader semiconductor sector.
SanDisk’s transformation toward multi-year customer contracts and a more predictable revenue base marks a fundamental shift in its business model. CEO David Goeckeler has emphasized that these changes are designed to deliver more stable and durable earnings, a key factor behind the company’s recent outperformance and the bullish outlook from Goldman Sachs.
For investors, the stakes are high. SanDisk’s rapid ascent has already redefined expectations for what a legacy semiconductor company can deliver in a single year. Whether the company can sustain this momentum—and whether Goldman’s aggressive forecast proves accurate—will depend on how the market responds to upcoming earnings, guidance, and the evolving dynamics of the global memory market.
SanDisk’s performance in 2026 stands out even among a strong field of technology stocks. Its year-to-date gain of 707.11% as of July 9, 2026, far outpaces other S&P 500 constituents, including Micron and Dell. The company’s ability to secure long-term agreements and capitalize on tight NAND supply has positioned it as a bellwether for the sector’s earnings growth this year.
For U.S. investors, the SanDisk story highlights the importance of understanding both the cyclical and structural forces at play in the semiconductor industry. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the company’s recent trajectory and the sharp divergence in analyst expectations make it a focal point for anyone tracking technology stocks and sector earnings in 2026.
Unlike many technology companies that rely on short-term contracts and volatile pricing, SanDisk’s shift to multi-year agreements with major customers is designed to reduce earnings volatility and provide greater visibility into future revenue. These contracts, often referred to as long-term agreements (LTAs), lock in both pricing and volume commitments, helping to insulate the company from the boom-and-bust cycles that have historically characterized the memory market. For investors, this approach can mean a more stable earnings profile, but it also introduces new risks if market conditions change or if competitors find ways to undercut pricing. As the semiconductor industry continues to evolve, the balance between stability and flexibility will remain a central challenge for companies like SanDisk and their shareholders.
